{"id":590009,"date":"2025-01-08T12:21:44","date_gmt":"2025-01-08T15:21:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/?p=590009"},"modified":"2025-01-08T12:21:47","modified_gmt":"2025-01-08T15:21:47","slug":"selic-dolar-projecoes-xp-2025-gss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/selic-dolar-projecoes-xp-2025-gss\/","title":{"rendered":"Selic a 15,5% e d\u00f3lar a R$ 6,20: veja proje\u00e7\u00f5es da XP para 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Em novo relat\u00f3rio sobre proje\u00e7\u00f5es econ\u00f4micas para 2025, a XP elevou a estimativa para a taxa <strong>Selic<\/strong> de 15% para 15,50% ao final do ciclo de alta.<\/p>\t<div class=\"wrapper-featured-image\">\n\t\t<figure class=\"spotlightImg\">\n\n\t\t\t<picture>\n\t\t\t\t<source media=\"(max-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/files.sunoresearch.com.br\/n\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iStock-1425576127-400x200.jpg\">\n\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"newsContent__article__imgCapa lazyloadDisabled \" src=\"https:\/\/files.sunoresearch.com.br\/n\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iStock-1425576127-800x450.jpg\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" alt=\"Selic a 15,5% e d\u00f3lar a R$ 6,20: veja proje\u00e7\u00f5es da XP para 2025\" fetchpriority=high \/>\n\t\t\t<\/picture>\n\n\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text wp-caption-text--show\">Com juros altos por mais tempo, os ETFs de renda fixa valem a pena? - Foto: iStock<\/figcaption>\n\t\t<\/figure>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\t<p>\n\t\t<a href=\"\" target=\"_blank\" data-element=\"shortcode-suno-banner\" title=\"Banner SUNO, clique e saiba mais\">\n\t\t\t<picture>\n\t\t\t\t<source media=\"(max-width: 500px)\" srcset=\"\">\n\t\t\t\t<img class=\"newsContent__article__imgCapa newsContent__article__imgCapa--banner\"\n\t\t\t\t\tsrc=\"\"\n\t\t\t\t\tdata-promo-id=\"240038\"\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\talt=\"\"\n\t\t\t\t>\n\t\t\t<\/picture>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Al\u00e9m disso, a casa tamb\u00e9m adiou a perspectiva para o in\u00edcio do ciclo de cortes nos juros, agora previsto apenas para 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No cen\u00e1rio cambial, a XP ajustou para cima a proje\u00e7\u00e3o do <strong>d\u00f3lar<\/strong> em 2025, de R$ 5,85 para R$ 6,20. Para 2026, a estimativa do <strong>c\u00e2mbio<\/strong> passou de R$ 6,00 para R$ 6,40. Segundo os analistas, o ajuste reflete o diferencial de infla\u00e7\u00e3o e um <a class=\"suno-keyword\" target=\"_blank\" data-force=\"no\" data-priority=\"1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/artigos\/premio-de-risco\/\" rel=\"noopener\">pr\u00eamio de risco<\/a> adicional devido \u00e0s incertezas do cen\u00e1rio eleitoral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A XP projeta tamb\u00e9m um arrefecimento na atividade econ\u00f4mica a partir do segundo trimestre de 2025, em resposta a uma <a class=\"suno-keyword\" target=\"_blank\" data-force=\"no\" data-priority=\"1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/artigos\/politica-monetaria\/\" rel=\"noopener\">pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria<\/a> mais contracionista e menor est\u00edmulo fiscal. Para o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), a expectativa \u00e9 de crescimento de 3,6% em 2024, desacelerando para 2,0% em 2025 e 1,0% em 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 infla\u00e7\u00e3o, a proje\u00e7\u00e3o do \u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) foi elevada para 6,1% em 2025, impulsionada pela demanda interna aquecida e pela desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o cambial. Para 2026, a XP manteve a previs\u00e3o de infla\u00e7\u00e3o em 4,5%, refletindo o impacto dos juros mais altos.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<p>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/lp.suno.com.br\/ebook-gratuito-investindo-no-exterior\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-element=\"shortcode-suno-banner\" title=\"Banner SUNO, clique e saiba mais\">\n\t\t\t<picture>\n\t\t\t\t<source media=\"(max-width: 500px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/files.sunoresearch.com.br\/n\/uploads\/2023\/03\/400x300-Investindo-no-exterior.png\">\n\t\t\t\t<img class=\"newsContent__article__imgCapa newsContent__article__imgCapa--banner\"\n\t\t\t\t\tsrc=\"https:\/\/files.sunoresearch.com.br\/n\/uploads\/2023\/03\/1420x240-Investindo-no-exterior.png\"\n\t\t\t\t\tdata-promo-id=\"383161\"\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\twidth='1420' height='240'\t\t\t\t\talt=\"https:\/\/files.sunoresearch.com.br\/n\/uploads\/2023\/03\/1420x240-Investindo-no-exterior.png\"\n\t\t\t\t>\n\t\t\t<\/picture>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>No cen\u00e1rio internacional, a XP avalia que as primeiras medidas do presidente eleito Donald Trump ser\u00e3o determinantes para os mercados emergentes, incluindo o Brasil. A corretora ainda enxerga espa\u00e7o para o <a class=\"suno-keyword\" target=\"_blank\" data-force=\"no\" data-priority=\"2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/artigos\/fed\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Federal Reserve (Fed)<\/a>, banco central dos EUA, realizar cortes adicionais na <strong>taxa de juros<\/strong>. A expectativa \u00e9 de dois cortes de 0,25 ponto percentual no primeiro semestre de 2025, com a taxa terminal em 4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Entretanto, o relat\u00f3rio destaca que h\u00e1 riscos crescentes de que o Fed mantenha os juros inalterados ao longo de 2025, dado o desempenho resiliente da economia americana e uma infla\u00e7\u00e3o que permanece acima da meta de 2%. A possibilidade de eleva\u00e7\u00e3o nos juros tamb\u00e9m n\u00e3o \u00e9 descartada, dependendo das medidas econ\u00f4micas adotadas por Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Apesar das incertezas e da <strong>Selic<\/strong> alta, a XP considera que o governo brasileiro ter\u00e1 condi\u00e7\u00f5es mais favor\u00e1veis para atingir a meta de resultado prim\u00e1rio em 2025, beneficiado por um cen\u00e1rio de arrecada\u00e7\u00e3o robusta. Contudo, a <a class=\"suno-keyword\" target=\"_blank\" data-force=\"no\" data-priority=\"1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/artigos\/divida-publica\/\" rel=\"noopener\">d\u00edvida p\u00fablica<\/a> deve continuar em ascens\u00e3o, o que amplia preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es com a sustentabilidade fiscal no m\u00e9dio e <a class=\"suno-keyword\" target=\"_blank\" data-force=\"no\" data-priority=\"1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/artigos\/longo-prazo\/\" rel=\"noopener\">longo prazo<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<p>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/lp.suno.com.br\/planilha-da-vida-financeira\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-element=\"shortcode-suno-banner\" title=\"Banner SUNO, clique e saiba mais\">\n\t\t\t<picture>\n\t\t\t\t<source media=\"(max-width: 500px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/files.sunoresearch.com.br\/n\/uploads\/2023\/04\/400x300-Planilha-vida-financeira-true.png\">\n\t\t\t\t<img class=\"newsContent__article__imgCapa newsContent__article__imgCapa--banner\"\n\t\t\t\t\tsrc=\"https:\/\/files.sunoresearch.com.br\/n\/uploads\/2023\/04\/1420x240-Planilha-vida-financeira-true.png\"\n\t\t\t\t\tdata-promo-id=\"383123\"\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\twidth='1420' height='240'\t\t\t\t\talt=\"https:\/\/files.sunoresearch.com.br\/n\/uploads\/2023\/04\/1420x240-Planilha-vida-financeira-true.png\"\n\t\t\t\t>\n\t\t\t<\/picture>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Em novo relat\u00f3rio sobre proje\u00e7\u00f5es econ\u00f4micas para 2025, a XP elevou a estimativa para a taxa Selic de 15% para 15,50% ao final do ciclo de alta. Com juros altos por mais tempo, os ETFs de renda fixa valem a pena? &#8211; Foto: iStock Al\u00e9m disso, a casa tamb\u00e9m adiou a perspectiva para o in\u00edcio [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":376,"featured_media":557929,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[64],"tags":[326,290],"suno_strategy":[],"class_list":["post-590009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-negocios","tag-dolar","tag-taxa-selic"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Selic a 15,5% e d\u00f3lar a R$ 6,20: veja proje\u00e7\u00f5es da XP para 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A XP Investimentos atualizou suas estimativas para o cen\u00e1rio econ\u00f4mico brasileiro neste ano. 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Passagens por R\u00e1dio Gazeta AM, gazetaesportiva.com e TC R\u00e1dio.","url":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/author\/guilherme-silvasuno-com-br\/"}]}},"default_loop_html":"<div class=\"cardsPage__listCard__boxs\"><div class=\"cardsPage__listCard__boxs__img\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/selic-dolar-projecoes-xp-2025-gss\/\"><img class=\"mask\" src=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-content\/themes\/suno\/resources\/images\/spotlight\/spotlight1img\/bg-mask.png\" alt=\"Image Mask\"\/><img src=\"https:\/\/files.sunoresearch.com.br\/n\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iStock-1425576127-400x200.jpg\" alt=\"Selic a 15,5% e d\u00f3lar a R$ 6,20: veja proje\u00e7\u00f5es da XP para 2025\"\/><\/a><span class=\"spotlightCategory\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/negocios\/\">Neg\u00f3cios<\/a><\/span><\/div><div class=\"cardsPage__listCard__boxs__content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/selic-dolar-projecoes-xp-2025-gss\/\"><h2 class=\"content__title\">Selic a 15,5% e d\u00f3lar a R$ 6,20: veja proje\u00e7\u00f5es da XP para 2025<\/h2><\/a><div class=\"newsContent__article__meta\"><div class=\"newsContent__article__meta__authorBox\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/author\/guilherme-silvasuno-com-br\/\" class=\"authorBox__avatar noMobi\"><img src=\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a90be19d8c67bef61497e4522de30ac4?s=96&#038;r=g\" alt=\"Guilherme Serrano\"><\/a><div class=\"authorBox__name\"><span>por\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/author\/guilherme-silvasuno-com-br\/\"><span itemprop=\"author\">Guilherme Serrano<\/span><\/a><\/span><time datetime=\"2025-01-08T12:21:44-03:00\" itemprop=\"datePublished\">08\/01\/2025 12:21<\/time><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","single_layout":"posts","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590009"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/376"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=590009"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590009\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":590011,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590009\/revisions\/590011"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/557929"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=590009"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=590009"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=590009"},{"taxonomy":"suno_strategy","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/suno_strategy?post=590009"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}