{"id":113417,"date":"2021-01-14T15:53:58","date_gmt":"2021-01-14T18:53:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/?p=113417"},"modified":"2021-02-18T17:22:49","modified_gmt":"2021-02-18T20:22:49","slug":"copom-itau-retirada-forward-guidance-juros-estaveis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/copom-itau-retirada-forward-guidance-juros-estaveis\/","title":{"rendered":"Copom: Ita\u00fa espera retirada de forward guidance, mas com juros est\u00e1veis"},"content":{"rendered":"

O Ita\u00fa Unibanco (ITUB4)<\/a> espera que o Comit\u00ea de Pol\u00edticas Monet\u00e1rias (Copom<\/strong>)<\/a> do Banco Central (BC)<\/a> retire o forward guidance<\/em> de sua comunica\u00e7\u00e3o, por\u00e9m ainda mantenha a taxa Selic<\/a> na m\u00ednima hist\u00f3rica de 2,00% ao ano, informou a institui\u00e7\u00e3o financeira nesta quarta-feira (14).<\/p>\t

\n\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\"Copom:\n\t\t\t<\/picture>\n\n\t\t\t
Os principais eventos da semana prometem agitar o mercado; passando por Selic at\u00e9 Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade.<\/figcaption>\n\t\t<\/figure>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/picture>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/p>\n\n\n

O forward guidance<\/em><\/strong> foi um instrumento adicional adotado pelo BC no ano passado a fim de sinalizar a inten\u00e7\u00e3o de um movimento ou manuten\u00e7\u00e3o da taxa b\u00e1sica de juros<\/a>. Na vis\u00e3o do Ita\u00fa<\/strong>, o comunicado da \u00faltima reuni\u00e3o do Copom em dezembro sinaliza a possibilidade de um abandono deste instrumento.<\/p>\n

O banco baseia sua previs\u00e3o no registro de que proje\u00e7\u00f5es e expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong> <\/a>para 2022 j\u00e1 se situavam pr\u00f3ximas \u00e0 meta. Dessa forma, o Copom poderia retirar o forward guidance<\/em> na medida em que o horizonte relevante de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria<\/a> migre para o pr\u00f3ximo ano.<\/p>\n

Suno One: acesse gratuitamente eBooks, Minicursos, Artigos e Video Aulas sobre investimentos com um \u00fanico cadastro. Clique para saber mais!<\/a><\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, o Ita\u00fa tamb\u00e9m destaca que, no Relat\u00f3rio de Infla\u00e7\u00e3o, tamb\u00e9m de dezembro, o BC mostrou proje\u00e7\u00f5es que deixam “certo espa\u00e7o para surpresas inflacion\u00e1rias altistas” no primeiro trimestre de 2021.<\/p>\n

“A divulga\u00e7\u00e3o do IPCA [\u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor Amplo]<\/a> de dezembro, bem como a perman\u00eancia do c\u00e2mbio<\/a> em patamar historicamente depreciado (apesar da forte alta recente em pre\u00e7os de commodities<\/a>) aumentam ainda mais tal espa\u00e7o, a nosso ver. Tudo isso sugere que o Copom deve retirar o forward guidance<\/em> de sua comunica\u00e7\u00e3o, de modo a aumentar a flexibilidade do comit\u00ea para a\u00e7\u00f5es futuras”, avaliou a institui\u00e7\u00e3o financeira.<\/p>\n

Sem forward guidance Copom deve elevar da Selic?<\/h2>\n

Em sua proje\u00e7\u00e3o, o Ita\u00fa considerou que a retirada do forward guidance <\/em>n\u00e3o leva “mecanicamente” a uma eleva\u00e7\u00e3o da taxa de juros no curto prazo<\/strong>. “O momento e o ritmo de eleva\u00e7\u00e3o da taxa de juros depender\u00e3o da evolu\u00e7\u00e3o da infla\u00e7\u00e3o”, destacou o banco.<\/p>\n

Desse modo, na hip\u00f3tese de novas surpresas no IPCA ou piora do balan\u00e7o de riscos, a institui\u00e7\u00e3o avalia que a Selic pode subir mais cedo.<\/p>\n

Do outro lado da moeda, no caso de uma contra\u00e7\u00e3o da economia ou aprecia\u00e7\u00e3o mais intensa do real j\u00e1 neste primeiro trimestre de 2021, o in\u00edcio do ciclo de alta poderia ser postergado.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/picture>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/p>\n\n\n

“Para que a retirada do forward guidance n\u00e3o seja interpretada como um sinal de alta iminente da taxa de juros, esperamos que o comit\u00ea reforce em sua comunica\u00e7\u00e3o que atuar\u00e1 de acordo com o receitu\u00e1rio do regime de metas para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o, que se baseia na avalia\u00e7\u00e3o da infla\u00e7\u00e3o prospectiva e de seu balan\u00e7o de riscos”, concluiu o Ita\u00fa.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\t\tSaiba mais<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\tResultado do Copom ser\u00e1 divulgado sempre a partir das 18h30, diz BC\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\n

Para 2021, o banco espera que as proje\u00e7\u00f5es de infla\u00e7\u00e3o do comit\u00ea no cen\u00e1rio base devam aumentar de 3,4% para 3,5%, e permanecer est\u00e1veis em 3,4% para 2022.<\/p>\n

O Copom<\/strong> voltar\u00e1 a se reunir nos dias 19 e 20 de janeiro.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/picture>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O Ita\u00fa Unibanco (ITUB4) espera que o Comit\u00ea de Pol\u00edticas Monet\u00e1rias (Copom) do Banco Central (BC) retire o forward guidance de sua comunica\u00e7\u00e3o, por\u00e9m ainda mantenha a taxa Selic na m\u00ednima hist\u00f3rica de 2,00% ao ano, informou a institui\u00e7\u00e3o financeira nesta quarta-feira (14). Os principais eventos da semana prometem agitar o mercado; passando por Selic […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":113445,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[62],"tags":[1842,1104,850,290],"suno_strategy":[],"class_list":["post-113417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","tag-banco-central-bc","tag-copom","tag-inflacao","tag-taxa-selic"],"yoast_head":"\nCopom: Ita\u00fa espera retirada de forward guidance, mas com juros est\u00e1veis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"O Ita\u00fa (ITUB4) espera que o Copom retire o forward guidance, por\u00e9m ainda mantenha a taxa Selic a 2,00% a.a.. 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Atualmente, \u00e9 estudante de jornalismo pela Faculdade C\u00e1sper L\u00edbero.","url":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/author\/arthur-guimaraes\/"}]}},"default_loop_html":"<div class=\"cardsPage__listCard__boxs\"><div class=\"cardsPage__listCard__boxs__img\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/copom-itau-retirada-forward-guidance-juros-estaveis\/\"><img class=\"mask\" src=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-content\/themes\/suno\/resources\/images\/spotlight\/spotlight1img\/bg-mask.png\" alt=\"Image Mask\"\/><img src=\"https:\/\/files.sunoresearch.com.br\/n\/uploads\/2021\/01\/1ea1bcfe-b2ap3_large_619c3b14-a6ed-44d2-8ff8-f0761c0ddd15-400x200.webp\" alt=\"Copom: Ita\u00fa espera retirada de forward guidance, mas com juros est\u00e1veis\"\/><\/a><span class=\"spotlightCategory\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/economia\/\">Economia<\/a><\/span><\/div><div class=\"cardsPage__listCard__boxs__content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/copom-itau-retirada-forward-guidance-juros-estaveis\/\"><h2 class=\"content__title\">Copom: Ita\u00fa espera retirada de forward guidance, mas com juros est\u00e1veis<\/h2><\/a><div class=\"newsContent__article__meta\"><div class=\"newsContent__article__meta__authorBox\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/author\/arthur-guimaraes\/\" class=\"authorBox__avatar noMobi\"><img src=\"https:\/\/files.sunoresearch.com.br\/n\/uploads\/2020\/02\/dfb40897-eu-150x150.webp\" alt=\"Arthur Guimar\u00e3es\"><\/a><div class=\"authorBox__name\"><span>por\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/author\/arthur-guimaraes\/\"><span itemprop=\"author\">Arthur Guimar\u00e3es<\/span><\/a><\/span><time datetime=\"2021-01-14T15:53:58-03:00\" itemprop=\"datePublished\">14\/01\/2021 15:53<\/time><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","single_layout":"posts","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113417"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/35"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113417\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113445"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113417"},{"taxonomy":"suno_strategy","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.suno.com.br\/noticias\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/suno_strategy?post=113417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}